PAKISTAN Special

By: Dr Akmal Hussain

The speech by Sufi Muhammad, leader of the Tehreek-e Nifaz-e Shariat-e Muhammadi, before a huge crowd in Mingora (Swat) last Saturday, represents a critical moment in the crisis of the Pakistani state. It clearly laid out the ideological framework within which the Taliban seek to achieve power and establish governance in Pakistan.

The Sufi specified the following six important postulates, which made clear the strategic objective of overthrowing the existing constitutional order of Pakistan:

1. He asserted that sharia (as interpreted by the Taliban) is seen as divine law.
2. He defined a Muslim not just in terms of someone who believes in the Oneness of God and the fact that Muhammad (PBUH) was the last prophet of God, but as one who supports and helps to implement the sharia.
3. He stipulated that the existing democratic order was an “un-Islamic system of the infidels” and that supporting such a system was a great sin.
4. The persistence of the “un-Islamic system of the infidels”, in his view, would destroy Pakistan and that he and his supporters would defend the country in the sense of attempting to establish their version of the sharia.
5. The superior courts of Pakistan were seen as part of the un-Islamic system of infidels and therefore rejected as institutions where legal appeals against qazi courts were to be made. Instead, he claimed that such appeals would be made before the soon to be formed institution of Darul Qaza.
6. The Nizam-e Adl (the system of justice established in Swat) as an application of the Taliban version of sharia under the “peace deal” was seen by the Sufi as only the first stage of the implementation process of sharia. According to him, sharia would be completed when it encompassed the institutional structures of Pakistan’s polity, economy and education.

These six postulates taken together constitute an ideological clarion call to all Muslims to join in the struggle of the Taliban to overthrow the existing democratic constitutional order in Pakistan for the establishment of their version of an Islamic state.

In this sense, Swat, like the other areas in the NWFP occupied and governed by various Taliban groups, is a base area from which the ideological, political and military struggle to establish a Taliban state in Pakistan is to be conducted.

Of course, the government regards the compromise in Swat as a “peace deal”, even though the TNSM has clearly stated that they will only provide peace if their version of sharia is implemented. The question is: Will they stop at Swat or pursue their broad strategic goals in the rest of Pakistan once Swat is secured?

Clearly there is a high quality military mind behind the Taliban strategy. In the first phase, large swathes of FATA were captured and a system of governance established by the Taliban at the level of a system of justice, the provision of livelihood for the poor, and a system of recruitment and military training. In the second stage, they enlarged their territorial control over some of the settled areas of the NWFP.

At the same time, guerrilla raids were conducted on key targets in the major cities of the country. The purpose was to undermine the confidence of the citizens in the ability of the state to fulfil the most basic function in terms of which it seeks legitimacy: protection of life of its citizens.

In the third stage, there is a shift from the valleys to the urban centres where strongholds have now been established. These strongholds of urban guerrillas are located in major cities such as Peshawar in the north, Lahore in the east, Multan and Karachi in the south and Quetta in the west. Pakistan is encircled by urban guerrilla forces poised to unleash mayhem of an intensity and scale unprecedented in Pakistan. If and when this happens, it could be a prelude to takeover.

The events in Swat fit a pattern of strategy that is slowly being unveiled. Only time will tell whether the Swat deal will give “peace in our time” as Chamberlain put it or will constitute what Churchill called the “end of the beginning”.

For many Pakistanis who are now leaving the country, this is the beginning of the end. It is time for the government, the military and the people of Pakistan to grasp the significance of the historic speech by Sufi Muhammad.

As I write these lines, somewhere in US Bush and Co are giving final touches to intended action plan against Iran . Indicators are that US is very much likely to go ahead with it’s plans within forty or fifty days from now.

Extraordinary and impressive preparations have been made for it which include strategic positioning of US forces in and around gulf and successful placing of pro US governments in countries like Germany, France and Italy (CIA, MI-8 and Mossad must have worked over time to achieve this) Additionally the strategic petroleum reserve of US has been beefed up to last for     at least three years in the event of a disruption of oil supplies. Needless to point out the horrendous impact of this enormous oil buying spree of USA on world economy. Are US’ European allies also busy storing the precious commodity for that rainy day? Sure they are.

What exactly will USA’s action against Iran be like? Will it be confined to bombing of the nuclear facilities and infrastructure alone or it will also commit it’s ground troops? In the first case US will obviously attempt to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age, causing obvious disruption to oil supplies to the countries like China in particular and Europe in general. This may well be a brief campaign spread over a couple of months. In the second case (though it seems less likely) committing ground troops will essentially mean a forced regime change and  physical occupation of Iran’s oil facilities (as in case of Iraq) leading to a  consolidation of US’ position in the region that will actually mean presence of US (or so called NATO forces) in Iran for a long time in future.

But why act against Iran at this point of time? Reasons are few but clear. One, Iran ’s becoming a symbol of defiance against US in the Muslim world is unacceptable to Zionist world. In this role Iran actually appears to have taken over the traditional role of Muslim World’s leadership from Saudi Arabia . Therefore like Libya and Iraq, Iran must also face the menace and be punished well and proper.  Two, by only targeting Iran, USA aims to achieve other strategic benefits in context to China, Asia and Middle East . And since Obama almost surely destined to win the presidential campaign, is understood to be against the plan against Iran, Bush is hell bent on fulfilling it’s commitment to Israel (and the Zionist world) before departure from white house.

One may wonder as to what can be likely reaction of China . So far Chinese leadership has resolved to confine themselves to the development of Chinese economy and look the other way when it comes to US’ adventurism. Of late it has however been visibly busy adopting measures to secure the long stretching sea lanes that remain vital for it’s ever increasing oil supplies. How far can it tolerate a direct impact on oil supplies caused by a US action against Iran remains to be seen. However an underestimation of a likely reaction by China may prove to be a very serious mistake on part of USA .

What does it all implicate for Pakistan who is already bleeding and struggling to survive in the post 9/11 times?  Just the other day Mike Mullar was here. One can safely assume what guarantees and support he may have been seeking from Pakistan besides the usual absurdity covering the so called “war on terror. “

Needless to mention the advance elements already placed in Pakistan like Helliburton, G4S and an assemblage of various NGOs that remain poised to take on an active role and keenly support US forces when time comes. These are the elements that will eventually host and facilitate launching of operations of companies like Blackwater.

An action against Iran is going to translate into compounding of Pakistan ’s wows in many ways. Rebellious Baloch Sardars are likely to be more active after discovering a larger playfield as they may be eyeing the parts of Balochistan in Iran and Afghanistan too. There will be a sure upsurge in activities of BLA and Jandullah who are already being actively supported by CIA for ulterior motives. Turmoil in NWFP is already risen way up the red marker.

In fact in the aftermath of bombing of Iran, USA is likely to create conditions that may facilitate a compromise of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal no matter what assurances Musharraf and clan give on the supposedly flawless command and control system deployed by army.

A matter of great concern is the now sure infiltration of CIA (and it’s allied agencies) into ISI that is virtually crippling it’s work in NWFP and Balochistan in particular.

With Pak Army at the advance stage of decay where it’s top brass remains busy in happy golfing and duck shooting, a corrupt bureaucracy, intellectually and morally bankrupt politicians and hapless and miserable masses…there remains almost no room for hope.

Question is where will it all stop?

USA is a hog gone berserk who will eventually meet it’s end sometime not in a very distant future. How far it will succeed in ravaging the country after country in the Muslim world cannot be said for sure because it is not likely to stop after complete destruction of Iran or even Pakistan. Countries like Malaysia and Indonesia and Saudi Arabia lie further up it’s path.

Muslim world has no choice in the face of this nuisance but fight back. To survive it must resist the ugly monster or perish. At the end of the day it’s the sons of soil, the poorest of poor, the oppressed and the beleaguered the likes of Taliban, that will take up the final fight and do the job,for it’s from the ashes and despair, a new flame of potent resistance will finally appear that will consume this menace called USA.

BY: SHIREEN MAZARI

What is with Pakistanis and the Americans? Despite over sixty-one years of independence; despite our successful struggle to acquire nuclear capability in the face of massive hurdles put in our way by these folk, despite the dismal record of our past military alliance with the US and its allies; despite the constant abuse being hurled at us Pakistanis in particular and Muslims in general, by them, post-9/11, we have continued to sustain the imperialists and neo imperialists in their misplaced assumption of the "White Man's Burden".

How else can we explain our continuing tolerance of the abuse — a form of psychological terrorisation — being meted out to us by the US? Their Administration continues with its mantra of "do more", and continues to scamper to build new political favourites as old ones lose domestic currency. Their politicians in and out of Congress hysterically threaten us with dire aid cut-offs if we do not deliver — although the only delivery they will ever be satisfied with is the handing over of our nuclear assets, Dr Khan and at least an Osama look-alike to appease their populace. As for the US media, we are definitely their bete noir, not least because our leadership is so readily accessible and prone to erring on the side of indiscretion — including our leadership-in-waiting. All and sundry make pronouncements on sensitive foreign policy issues with no thought to the implications and unintended consequences.

As for the US military, it is playing an interesting double game at the moment. The command in Washington critiques us, while at the operational level on the ground in the Trilateral Commission, they feign an atmosphere of camaraderie and goodwill which makes our local commanders adopt an unnecessarily accommodative approach towards them.

It is in this bizarre environment that our own security situation has been vitiated even as we have sought to please the US ad nauseum. Certainly, we have had a terrorist problem even before 9/11, but the US-led war on terror in Afghanistan has distorted our indigenous terrorist problem as well as aggravating it. To make matters worse, the US has adopted a duplicitous and treacherous strategy vis a vis the Pakistani state. On the one hand, it wants us to fight its designed war against terror, but it is itself supporting Baloch terrorist groups with the aim of destabilising both Iran's Sistan and Pakistan's Balochistan. The use of terror group Jundullah by the US against the Iranian state has been discussed in the US media. Additionally, the US has done nothing to push the Karzai government to close the offices of Pakistani terrorist groups like the BLA — now renamed the Baloch Republican Army, after the UK declared BLA a terrorist organisation.

This is just the tip of the iceberg. US citizens joined some Baloch expats in 2006 to launch the so-called "American friends of Balochistan" (AFB) in Washington DC with Robert Selle, apparently a journalist, as its chairman. The aim of the group is to separate Balochistan from Pakistan and its level of funding tends to show more than a passive acceptance by the US establishment. Interestingly, the group was formed a year after French diplomat Frederic Grare went to Washington and began claiming expertise on Balochistan.

Then there is the Baloch Society of North America, established in 2005, which is active against both the Pakistani and Iranian states and has access also in Canada and the UK, post the BLA ban. There is also a big question mark over the diversion of funds received from international donors by the World Sindhi Congress (WSC) and World Sindh Institute (WSI), to terrorists in Pakistan rather than for the philanthropic purposes for which the funding was given. Both these organisations have given financial support to the Sindh Liberation Army which has claimed responsibility for a number of bomb blasts in Sindh. To make matters worse, US officials even maintain contact with members of these groups in Pakistan.

The issue is why America has failed to monitor or curtail such activities emanating from its territory. After all, we all know that terrorist organisations have to have their political wings to raise funds and the US has attacked many religious groups on this count in Pakistan. We also know how Washington has emphasised the issue of terrorist financing and many Muslim charities have suffered on this count. Are we not interested in some level of reciprocity from the US?

With all these shenanigans which directly undermine our security, we have allowed US bases in the sensitive province of Balochistan, as well as in Sindh, and there is now evidence that they are also using a short refurbished runway near Tarbela for launching Predator flights. With all this logistical support offered by Pakistan, where is the US reciprocity on anti-terrorism? Of course, if we Pakistanis had even an iota of dignity, we would stop all logistical support and let Congress do its worst. What will that be? US marines coming into Pakistan? They can barely manage Iraq and Afghanistan at the moment.

Unfortunately, despite being abused all around, we continue to do US bidding — much against our own long term interests. Now we hear US military personnel are coming in to not only train our paramilitary forces but also to accompany them on missions within Pakistan. There has also been talk of the US "training" our military in counter-insurgency. What absurdities are we reducing ourselves to? Has no one studied the US's dismal record in this field — both in Vietnam and Iraq, not to mention in our own neighbourhood in Afghanistan? All that will happen with the additional influx of US military personnel in Pakistan is more acts of terror against our own security forces.

The only way to fight a successful war on terror against our own indigenous terrorist problem is to begin thinning out US personnel from Pakistan and adopting a holistic approach in dealing with the tribals. To make it a perceptually credible national effort we have to create space between ourselves and the Americans so that our security forces can become more effective with local support. Unless the locals flush out the terrorists, the state will see no success in this war. This is where the ANP victory can play a crucial role in a two-pronged strategy of dialogue, development and establishment of law and order. We have to overcome the psychological confidence deficit that prevents us from creating the necessary distance between ourselves and the US.

Is it not interesting that post the ANP victory in NWFP, when it was seen that the local people had rejected the extremists and elections had been conducted more or less peacefully in that province, and there was hope of the new political leadership using a policy of dialogue to isolate the militants and terrorists — something that went against the US policy — suddenly we have been hit with a spate of suicide attacks with even funerals being targeted — something that has not happened before.

Unfortunately, so far our ruling elite seem unable or unwilling to see the US design for what it is: a weakening of the Pakistani state and nation with perhaps a long term goal of balkanisation. After all, US scholars with close links to the establishment are referring increasingly to this end goal. Yet even here we seem to retain a strange subservience and continue to give academic space to perennial Pakistan-bashers, especially in terms of access to data and information. Such is our continuing hangover of kowtowing to old and new imperialist powers. No wonder we Pakistanis today face a double-headed terrorist threat: psychological terrorisation of the state by the US, and the physical home grown militant terrorism. One feeds on the other.